If you thought SSD prices were already bordering on the ludicrous side, then strap in and brace yourself, because it’s about to get a whole lot worse. In fact, according to RAM consultant and director of UK system builder Wired2Fire, Ben Miles, the situation is “gonna get brutal,” with even a basic 1TB M.2 drive coming in at over $200 at cost.
Speaking to Club386 for a feature about RAM prices, Miles, who consults for UK memory distributor M2M, told us that “SSDs are now on a steeper, increased trajectory than DRAM was.” We all saw how quickly the price of memory sped off into the distance, so this is definitely not good news for anyone thinking about upgrading their storage this year.
To paint us a picture of the situation, Miles tells us that “we are looking at $200 for a 1TB entry-level M.2 drive” right now. This isn’t the price you’ll see in the shops either – “rebuy” refers to the cost price for distributors restocking these drives – the actual retail price for consumers will be even higher, once profit margins and sales tax are factored into the equation.
There’s just a lag on what consumers are seeing versus what distributors are seeing at rebuy.
And that’s just a basic entry-level drive – what sort of changes will we see on high-end PCIe Gen 5 SSDs? “To give you an idea,” says Miles, “rebuy on a Samsung 9100 Pro 4TB, which is a high-end drive that enthusiasts like us quite like, is somewhere in the region of £600 ex VAT.” Add in a modest 7% profit margin, plus 20% VAT, and this drive is set to cost at least £770.
That’s a stark increase in price for a drive that’s currently going for £461.99 on Amazon in the UK, but it already costs $839.99 in the US, where new, expensive stock has now fully replaced all the old stock, and prices are going to get much, much worse. As a taster, you can see an even more disturbing price rise on the SanDisk website, where a 4TB WD_Black SN8100 will currently set you back a massive £1,285.99, compared to its current £499.99 price on Amazon.
Why is there such a huge discrepancy between these prices? “There’s just a lag on what consumers are seeing versus what distributors are seeing at rebuy,” explains Miles. “It’s a look through the looking glass of what consumer pricing will be once these stocks are exhausted.” This is also the reason why we saw RAM prices coming down a few weeks ago – it’s old stock that retailers need to shift, but prices will rise again as stock is replenished – make no mistake, DRAM and NAND prices are only going up.
Think you can get around inflated SSD prices by going for a cheaper hard drive instead? Not for much longer. Miles says that even the 4TB hard drive prices are set to shoot off into the stratosphere as well.
“We’re seeing 4TB drives now at £300,” he tells us, “for a 4TB spinner, which was previously, what, £60, max? They’re £300 now, and it’s just because these data centres that the hyperscalers are building – they’re measured in hectares, so they’re not short of space, and if they can hoover up low-capacity hard drives and use those instead, they will. It’s just nuts.”
In short, if you want to upgrade your storage, and you can still find some stock at reasonable prices, buy it now, before it’s too late. Bleak times are ahead.
