Brace yourself, as we’re not even close to being out of the woods when it comes to high SSD prices. That’s according to Pua Khein Seng, CEO of Phison, who recently shared his assessment of current NAND supply and demand. It makes for uncomfortable reading, for both businesses and consumers.
According to Taiwan’s Commercial Times, Pua Khein Seng pressed senior executives at the company to find out how long fresh investment could translate into new mass production capacity for NAND flash. The answer was “four years”, doubling from the company’s initial estimate of two.
In short, it looks as though the pressures on NAND pricing won’t relent over the next few years, as it’s impossible for supply to meet market demand without a substantial increase in manufacturing capacity. The situation is so dire, in fact, that Phison is having to strategically manage inventory to ensure it has sufficient supply for the future.
This means there will be continued knock-on effects for both consumer and enterprise markets, as manufacturers like Phison continue to prioritise AI customers and products. With 38% of the company’s revenue stemming from the latter business, with no signs of slowing, it’s hard to imagine any change in tune in the near future.
Phison is a large force in the world of memory controllers, but is just one of many in the space. While that theoretically leaves room for other manufacturers to service the starving consumer market, most are dancing to the same tune. Just a few months ago, Silicon Motion declared the SSD market has “almost disappeared” with no sign of imminent reprieve.
All that said, we are seeing emerging companies like YMTC provide some relief to the NAND shortage with a specific focus on consumer markets. There are also reports that indicate NAND supply is outpacing demand, contradicting Phison and others’ assessment of the market.
Even so, the problems of supply and demand affecting the SSD market will still take years to address. Treat your storage kindly for the foreseeable future, unless you fancy paying down the nose for a new drive.
